The Senate is slated to begin the impeachment trial of US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, Jan. 21st The odds Trump is convicted and removed from office are now a lengthy +2500 Those odds were as low as +500 just six weeks ago The US Senate will begin Donald Trump’s impeachment trial on Tuesday. The Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump begins today, February 9, 2021. Accused of “incitement of insurrection,” the 100 senators will hear arguments from Democratic. Odds of the Senate failing to convict Trump fall at -2500, implying a 96.15% chance of an acquittal, according to SportsBettingDime. It’s even less likely according to SportsBetting.ag, whose -3000.
President Donald Trump was acquitted in his first Senate impeachment trial in February 2020. The betting odds also favor Trump getting acquitted in his second impeachment trial. Generated probability that Trump will be impeached in Senate convicted in Senate impeachment trial. Trump will be impeached in Senate 0%. Trump will win the election 10%. Kamala Harris will win 20%. UPGRADE to ODDS.WATCH PRO and Receive Email Alerts.
Donald Trump is no longer in office, but for the fake news media, he might as well be.
And that goes beyond the cable news model, too.
If you have one of the network TV streaming services like Hulu – or any of the other politicized streaming apps like Amazon Prime or the free Pluto offerings on your smart TV – every time you log in you’ll see Trump featured prominently in some banner, frowning as if desperate, with the words “Trump Impeachment” branded above him.
Of course, it’s not Citizen Trump who’s desperate – it’s the networks.
With news ratings crashing since Dementia Joe was installed as President, this newest attack on Trump and his supporters isn’t just beating a dead horse, it’s milking a dead cow.
Of course, it is a thing, and there areVegas Presidential impeachment oddsavailable for the circus sideshow.
However, only one site is offering any betting lines right now: Bovada.
Typically, Bovada tends to shy away from political props, but this time around, they’re on the ball with Trump impeachment chances.
Actually, that’s not quite accurate. Trump has already been impeached again.
What you’re betting on here are Trump conviction odds, or whether or not the Senate will cast at least 67 votes against him.
This is questionably constitutional and could be a play for relevancy if the votes are there, as it’d go to the Supreme Court in a protracted case that would give the failing news media another two years or so of solvency before they can coalesce around their next bogeyman.
But in the meantime, such a vote would prevent The Donald from running for President again.
At any rate, here are the current odds:
Via Bovada Sportsbook
Now, most of you – like most of us – probably think there’s no chance that the upper chamber will have the votes to convict. The Senate odds really don’t seem to be there.
The Democrats would need to find 17 GOP Senators to make it happen, and while there are plenty of RINOs champing at the bit to make sure “Trumpism” (i.e. America-First populism) dies a quick death, there may not be 17 such career pols willing to commit career suicide over the issue.
Just ask House Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
That piece of work is laboring under the delusion that Trump “does not have a role as a leader of our party going forward.”
House Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX), who just months ago was on a meteoric rise within the party for backing Trump, is backing Cheney. With just one eye, perhaps he can be forgiven for failing to see his constituency more clearly.
Regardless, it’ll certainly be interesting to see what happens, but there’s very little chance the cynical ploy will get anywhere.
That’s especially true considering the fact that the leaders of this sham are themselves guilty of explicitly instigating actual criminal riots across the nation over the summer months of 2020.
Here’s what Trump said January 6, per Newsweek (which isn’t remotely a Trump ally):
“I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard. Today we will see whether Republicans stand strong for [the] integrity of our elections, but whether or not they stand strong for our country, our country.
Our country has been under siege for a long time, far longer than this four-year period… If they don’t fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don’t fight. You primary them. We’re going to let you know who they are.”
Apparently, advocating for the lawful assembly of “peaceful” and “patriotic” Americans while asking them to make their voices heard at the ballot box is now seditious action and constitutes the commission of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Now, contrast Trump’s statement with those of his chief antagonists in office, all of whom are involved in his second impeachment and potential removal.
One of them is even the current Vice President – and future President (like next week) – of the United States.
Keep in mind, these comments were made during the Antifa/BLM riots that burned through dozens of cities in 2020, causing more than $2 billion in damages and resulting in the murders, rapes, and assaults of hundreds of innocent people.
This is basic projection and deflection.
The problem for the Democrats, of course, is that it’s also going to be part of Donald Trump’s defense, and these morons are too stupid to realize it.
But all that said, we’re genuinely unsure how the vote will go.
The Republicans, by and large, appear very interested in getting back to the uniparty model, and it’s not out of the question that they could vote to convict in large enough numbers to actually pull it off.
But in the end, it won’t matter.
The Republican Party is only the Republican Party inside the National Guard-protected Halls of Congress.
Out here in the real world, it’s Donald J. Trump and about 80 million of his followers.
Sources: The Hill, Newsweek
What are the chances of US President Donald Trump being removed from office if the Democrats do retake the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, or at least make significant gains?
These days, you can bet on anything in politics, including which White House Cabinet member might be next to leave and how many Saudi Arabia tweets Trump will send this week.
In politics, as in everything else, one should follow the money. If the betting markets give good odds, surely that means it is likely to happen, right?
Not quite. Suppose a fictitious horse, Tempestuous Daniels (named after Stormy Daniels, naturally), is running in the Melbourne Cup with odds of $3, and that some billionaire puts $10 million on her to win.
Bookmakers do not want any further bets on the horse, otherwise, if she were to win, they’d go bankrupt. So, they’ll shorten the odds to $1.01 to discourage further bets. The horse is now surely the favourite, but not due to its intrinsic chances of winning.
So, what of impeachment? The US Constitution allows for the impeachment of a president for “treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanours.” The House of Representatives can vote with a simple majority to impeach a president. The impeached leader is then tried in the Senate. If two-thirds of the Senate find him or her guilty, the president is removed from office.
There are 435 voting members of the House, and 100 Senators. This means that a successful impeachment needs 218 votes in the House and a successful removal needs 67 votes in the Senate. Currently, the Republicans control both chambers, making impeachment of Trump extremely unlikely.
Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be
But will the chances of impeachment change if the Democrats retake the House after the November midterm elections? The US political website FiveThirtyEight.com publishes daily forecasts of all the races and the probability of each party winning control of the House and Senate.
For example, the site predicts the Democrats have an 83.6% chance of retaking the House, while the Republicans have a 16.4% chance of retaining control (as of time of publishing). There’s a 1.7% chance the Republicans will maintain a majority of one with 218 seats; a 1.7% chance they will retain a 219-216 majority; a 1.6% chance of 220-215, and so forth.
To make the following analysis easier, we shall assume that all Democrats will always vote to impeach (in the House) and vote for guilty (in the Senate). Given this assumption, we can boil the analysis down to one number: the odds of any given Republican crossing the floor (or crossing the aisle, as they say in America) and voting against Trump.
We’ll call this probability “p”. We’ll also make the assumption that the decision of any given Republican to cross floor does not affect the decision of any other Republican to cross the floor. That is, we make the assumption that the probabilities of crossing the floor are independent. Central city poker.
To explain the concept of independence, consider the following. The odds of rolling a five on a standard die are 1-in-6; the odds of drawing a diamond from a standard pack of cards are 1-in-4. The die has nothing to do with the cards. Therefore, these probabilities are independent of one another.
What, then, are the odds of rolling a five and then drawing a diamond? Only one-sixth of the time do we roll a five, and only one-quarter of the time do we draw a diamond. Therefore, the odds of doing both are 1-in-24.
Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be
Let’s return to the election predictions. Let’s also assume the Republicans retain a slim 218-217 majority in the House. We don’t care whether it is Peter who crosses the floor, or Mabel, or John. What we want is the number of ways of choosing one Republican to cross the floor, and all 217 others to stay loyal. There are 218 such ways for this to happen.
Doing the calculations, Fred will cross the floor with probability p. Other Republicans will stay loyal with probability 1-p. Therefore, the odds of Fred crossing the floor and all other Republicans staying loyal is p(1-p)…(1-p), with 217 (1-p)s in the product.
Similarly, we can figure out the odds of two (or more) Republicans crossing the floor. We need to figure out how many ways we can choose two “p's (to cross the floor) and 216 (1-p)s (to stay loyal). This brings us to an area of mathematics known as combinatorics.
Crunching the numbers, we arrive at a long expression that gives us the odds of a Trump impeachment where the only variable is p.
Suppose there was even just a 1% chance of a Republican crossing the floor, that is, that p = 1%. Then the probability of impeachment according to these calculations is 83%. If p = 3%, this jumps to 90%; if p = 5% then there is a 95% chance that Trump becomes the third impeached president after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.
Therefore, even if there is only a small chance of any given Republican crossing the floor, there is a very high chance of impeachment.
What, though, about a guilty verdict in the Senate? Remember, you need 67 senators to vote in favour of removing a president from office.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Republicans currently have a 81% chance of retaining control of the Senate. The Democrats face very long odds to get even close to the 67 senators needed to impeach – they have a 0.1% chance to reach even 56 seats. Even then, they would need 11 Republicans to cross the floor – a very tall order.
This makes a guilty verdict almost impossible to achieve.
For Trump to be removed, he needs to be impeached by the House and then found guilty by the Senate. Assume these events occurring independently of one another.
If the odds of any given Republican (in either the House or Senate) defecting were 1-in-4, there would only be a 7% chance of Trump’s removal. Even if this rose to a staggeringly unbelievable 1-in-3 – meaning one-third of Republicans would try to remove their own President – the odds of removal are still not quite even money.
This article is based on a talk given in the G.S. Watson Annual Lecture at La Trobe University, Bendigo.